The October 2025 update sets out where prices and market signals sit across the Australian beef complex right now.
This short introduction summarises why stronger export demand has pushed values higher in recent months, and what producers should watch as the year runs down.
Key drivers include firmer US wholesale beef, tighter lean supply from Brazil, and China’s growing appetite for Australian beef as other sources fall away.
Southern processors are bidding north to keep kill lines full, while easing grain into harvest is helping feeders buy. Q4 could see more US feedlot turnoff from a front‑loaded inventory, which may cap imported values later in the season.
The full content that follows gives practical, state‑level signals and short, actionable steps producers can use to manage buying, placements and contracts into year end.
Key Takeaways
- Export demand is the main reason cattle and beef prices lifted this month.
- China has increased Australian beef purchases as US shipments fell sharply.
- Lower grain costs are supporting feeder buying and southern processor activity.
- Q4 US feedlot turnoff may temper imported values, so expect some price easing later.
- Reported state signals and category prices help producers benchmark decisions now.
At a glance: Australian cattle and beef markets hold firm on export demand
Strong offshore buying has pushed Australian beef values higher over recent months and kept local markets tight. Export demand has underpinned firmer cattle prices and lifted returns across finished lines and feeders.
US feedlot marketings eased in summer (July −6%, August −14%), reducing lean supply and lifting US wholesale values. That gap helped Australia replace US supply into China, with shipments at $221m in July and $226m in August.
Southern processors are now bidding in northern markets to keep kills steady. Feedlots have bought actively as grain eases, supporting feeder values while southern restocker demand cools with tightening seasonal conditions.
- Short-term outlook: Q4 may bring stronger US turnoff from a front‑loaded inventory, which could temper imported values.
- Local view: Slaughter prices are likely to stabilise into year’s end as northern turnoff builds and buying schedules slow ahead of mid‑December shutdowns.
Quick takeaway: Use these numbers and trends as a fast scan to set buying or selling intentions this month.
MLA cattle report: key drivers shaping prices and supply
Recent demand from the US and China has reshaped short-term supply and pricing for Australian beef.
US and Chinese demand lift Australian beef and cattle values
US lot feeders withheld supply over summer, cutting marketings in July (−6%) and August (−14%). That pushed US wholesale values higher and created openings for Australian product in China.
China stepped in as US shipments fell, lifting Australian shipments from roughly $140m a month to $221m in July and $226m in August. The result: firmer local prices for slaughter and feeder lines.
Higher US feedlot turnoff in Q4 to pressure global beef values
US cattle on feed over 180 days are up nearly 60% year‑on‑year and sit above the August 2020 record. That points to larger turnoff in Q4.
As US weekly slaughter rises and the choice cut‑out eases from ~US$420/cwt to just over US$370/cwt, global beef and imported values are likely to test recent gains.
Local processing margins, grain prices and brisk buying underpin competition
Southern processors are bidding into northern supply to keep kills full as margins improve. At the same time, cheaper grain into harvest has lifted the feedlot sector to buy aggressively.
Practical implication: sellers can press for leverage where processors compete, while buyers should stagger placements ahead of potential Q4 imported price softening.
| Driver | What changed | Implication for producers |
|---|---|---|
| US withholding | July −6%, August −14% marketings | Stronger near-term beef prices; watch for Q4 turnoff |
| China demand | Shipments rose to $221–$226m in July–Aug | Support for australian beef and heavy steer values |
| Feedlot dynamics | Feedlots buying, grain easing | Firm feeder values; plan placements carefully |
| US turnoff risk | Over‑days cattle near record levels | Possible downward pressure on imported prices in Q4 |
Price pulse by category: heavy steers, cows, feeders, restockers and heifers
This update breaks the main price movements down by class so producers can act on clear signals.
Heavy steers
Heavy steers have tracked higher on strong US fed beef and extra Chinese demand. That support looks solid today.
However, a larger US feedlot turnoff expected in Q4 could cap imported cut values and put pressure on local prices into year’s end.
Cows
Cow prices firmed as local slaughter tightened and southern specialists competed for numbers.
With US lean wholesale steady and seasonal dairy culling set to rise, cow values are more likely to flatten than to surge further.
Feeders and feedlot activity
Feedlot buying remains brisk as grain eases. December 100‑day flatback contracts sit around $8.30–$8.50/kg dw, signalling confident buying levels.
Angus premiums have come off mid‑winter peaks while non‑Angus and heifer lines have firmed as pens fill.
Restockers and heifers
Southern restocker demand is fragile with pasture tightening; light weaners (150–160kg) have traded strongly but appetite is cautious.
The heifer discount has narrowed to an 18‑month low, though any further tightening depends on seasonal improvement.
- Quick indicator: monitor relative spreads and category numbers to choose selling now or holding for a seasonal swing.
Regional market update: eastern states indicators and local conditions
Eastern states market update: yardings are rising in parts while strong buyer interest keeps pressure on prices for quality lines.
Queensland — Ashley Loveday reports Roma yardings at 9,000–11,000 and Dalby 6,000–8,000. Processor competition is firm and feeder demand is solid. Crossbreds on the Downs trade near $4.80–$4.85/kg lw; Angus feeders $5.30–$5.40/kg lw. Processor bookings have shortened to about two weeks.
New South Wales — supplies are improving with heat encouraging turnoff. Feeder and slaughter values sit firm. December 100‑day contracts at ~$8.50/kg dw, with $0.50–$1.00/kg for Angus premiums.
South Australia — Laryn Gogel notes strong program returns and keen store competition where feed is available. Grassfed programs pay up to $9.30/kg dw; seasonal variance persists across the Mallee and Riverland.
Tasmania — the north is ready for spring while the south stays dry. Mainland pull‑through of 600–700 head shows where the top-end money sits.
| State | Key levels | Top lines | Indicator (c/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Queensland | Roma 9k–11k; Dalby 6k–8k | Angus feeders $5.30–$5.40/kg lw | Heavy steer 412 |
| New South Wales | Paddock & yard align; heat-driven turnoff | 100‑day beef contracts ~$8.50/kg dw | Heavy steer 462 |
| South Australia | Program premiums; mixed season | Grassfed $9.20–$9.30/kg dw | Heavy steer 496 |
| Tasmania | North spring-ready; south dry | Top program yearlings $8.70–$9.70/kg dw | Store prices variable |
Takeaway: compare local numbers and transport costs, watch processor booking windows, and match sale timing to expected seasonal shifts to protect margins.
Global context and outlook: Q4 tempering then H1 2026 set for tighter US production
Signs from US feedlots and weekly slaughter point to a Q4 easing in imported lean values, then tighter conditions next year.
US inventories are front‑loaded: animals over 180 days on feed are almost 60% higher year‑on‑year and 8% above the August 2020 peak.
The US choice cut‑out has eased from about US$420/cwt to just over US$370/cwt while weekly slaughter rose to 573,000 head (w/e 14 Sept). This adds more lean and sub‑primal supply into global channels this month.
What it means for producers
Near term: expect a softer tone as US turnoff eases wholesale pressure and takes urgency out of some import buying.
From H1 2026: USDA projects US beef production down ~2.5% on 2025 and 5% on 2024 as placements fall and herd decisions tighten.
“Plan staged turnoff now and keep selling windows flexible to capture any H1 2026 upside.”
| Period | Signal | Action for sellers |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | Higher turnoff, eased cut‑out | Stagger sales; watch processor bookings |
| H1 2026 | Tighter production, lower placements | Position for firmer prices; consider forward contracts |
| Watch list | Mexican feeder flows, dairy cull levels | Track exports and local supply closely |
Bottom line: use these insights and numbers from research development and data to align sales with likely market swings.
What producers and lot feeders can do now
Plan practical steps this month to guard margins and keep turnoff on track. Start by mapping intake and slaughter windows against processor bookings and transport availability.
End‑of‑year buying wind‑down and shutdown schedules
Pencil in a staged wind‑down of buying from mid‑November as feedlots and processors slow intake ahead of mid‑December shutdowns.
Avoid over‑stocking into reduced kill capacity. Shorter processor bookings (now around two weeks in some areas) mean sellers must confirm space and transport earlier.
Use market information, indicators and contracts to manage risk
Where practical, lock in margins with forward contracts or grid prices while December 100‑day indicators sit near $8.30–$8.50/kg dw for flatback steers.
Use mla market information and contract benchmarks to track spreads between feeders, heavies and cows. Check these regularly to decide when to step in or hold back.
- Align feed deliveries and bunk space with expected grain availability into harvest.
- Book processor space early and consign in smaller parcels to keep flexibility.
- Monitor grids weekly for cows and heavy steers and be ready to shift timing if competition eases.
- Lot feeders can diversify entry classes to smooth turnoff and control costs.
| Action | Timing | Why it matters | Quick check |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage buying wind‑down | Mid‑November start | Avoid overstocking before mid‑December shutdowns | Processor bookings ≤2 weeks |
| Lock forward contracts | Now–early December | Secure margins while 100‑day rates remain supportive | $8.30–$8.50/kg dw indicator |
| Align feed & bunk plans | Immediate | Take advantage of harvest grain dips and protect feeding economics | Grain availability & storage checked |
| Monitor grids & market info | Weekly | React to likely Q4 imported value softening | Compare feeder/heavy/cow spreads |
“Stagger purchases, confirm bookings and use market indicators to keep options open through shutdowns.”
Conclusion
Export buying and improved processing margins have held prices steady despite seasonal noise.
The market is supported now, but a larger US Q4 turnoff and softer wholesale values mean a steadier finish to the month. Use current strength in cows and heavies where grids pay up before the December shutdown.
Feedlots should protect margins with forward cover on grain and stock, and keep entries flexible across classes as northern turnoff builds. Restockers in the south must balance replacement cost with pasture outlook and cost of gain.
Action: confirm processor bookings, watch eastern states levels, and use trusted information to track spreads across categories. Plan calmly, sell into strength, and set up for a firmer start to next year as production tightens.
