Discover the Latest Cattle Trends in Australia

This report sets the scene for Australia’s livestock market by explaining how strong export demand and lean beef supply pushed head and carcass values higher in recent months.

US summer feedlot marketings eased and a tariff on Brazilian beef tightened imports, which helped lift local prices. China’s increased imports of Australian beef in July and August supported processing margins and kills.

Southern processors have been competing hard in northern markets, while feedlot buying picked up with forward contracts out to December. Restocker demand in the south rose, then softened as seasonal conditions changed.

The piece gives clear market insights and practical information on where demand and prices sit today, which categories and weight ranges buyers favour, and what to watch into year’s end. Producers will find straightforward guidance on timing, marketing windows for steers and cows, and medium‑term factors shaping the next year.

Key Takeaways

• Strong export demand has firmed local prices and processor competition.
• US supply shifts and tariffs on Brazil altered imported beef flows.
• China’s recent buying supported southern processing and kills.
• Feedlot forward contracts show brisk buying into December.
• Producers get actionable information on categories, head movements and pricing.

At a glance: Australia’s cattle market trend right now

A surge in overseas orders and reduced northern turnoff tightened near-term supply, lifting values at saleyards and direct works.

Key points this week:

• Export demand remains firm, pushing prices higher across most categories as local works compete for heavy steers and cows.
• US feedlot marketings eased — down 6% in July and 14% in August — which tightened global lean supply and underpinned local levels.
• China’s buying lifted shipments to $221m (July) and $226m (August), supporting processor margins and kill rates.
• Forward 100‑day signals for December sit at $8.30–$8.50/kg dw, reflecting solid feeding margins.
• Slaughter schedules compressed from 6–8 weeks to about two weeks out, and buying should ease from mid‑November as programs wind down.
• Feeder values have stabilised as northern head turnoff lifts with heat; category spreads and quality differentials have narrowed in places.

Monitor week-to-week metrics: processor grids, AuctionsPlus clearances, AYCI levels and state yardings to stay ahead of short-term moves.

Methodology and time frame: present market context and sources

The analysis links weekly digital saleyard feeds, AuctionsPlus summaries and MLA projections to give clear market information.

The time frame covers late August to mid‑October 2025. Weekly shifts are tracked via AuctionsPlus reports (AYCI, VOR, head listed and clearances) and processor signals. MLA’s September 2025 projections provide the broader year outlook.

International context is drawn from USDA feedlot marketings, wholesale cut‑out movements and Brazilian tariff updates that affect lean beef flows. State-level colour comes from market managers across Queensland, NSW, South Australia and Tasmania.

The review prioritises verifiable head counts, prices, clearances and category‑by‑category numbers. That keeps market insights practical and farm‑relevant.

• Weekly: AuctionsPlus indicators and saleyard commentary.
• Months: August–October 2025 focus.
• Year: MLA projections frame the 2025 picture.

Macro demand drivers lifting Australian beef and cattle values

Global wholesale shifts and trade actions have pushed more lean supply toward Australia. That has supported stronger prices and tighter availability for processors and saleyards.

US wholesale dynamics: feedlot turnoff, cut‑out and lean pull

US feedlot marketings fell 6% in July and 14% in August. The choice cut‑out dropped from about US$420/cwt to just above US$370/cwt.

The summer slowdown tightened lean supply and drew more Australian product into global channels. A larger dairy cow cull expected in Q4 may ease pressure, but short‑term weeks remain volatile.

China’s pivot to Australian product amid trade friction

China’s buying shifted sharply away from US volumes. US shipments to China fell to US$8.1m (July) and US$9.5m (August), while Australian exports rose to US$221m and US$226m.

This pivot lifted local works bids and helped sustain higher values for heavy steers and manufacturing stock.

Brazil tariff settings and implications for imported lean product

The August US tariff on Brazilian beef tightened imported lean availability. That directly underpinned Australian cows and trimmings values for several weeks and supported processing margins.

• Key takeaway: Reduced US marketings, strong Chinese demand and tariff moves have combined to firm markets.
• Producers should monitor week‑to‑week wholesale shifts and align head availability with export enquiry.

Supply-side signals: herd, slaughter, and seasonal conditions

Regional weather and herd settings are the main drivers of head availability into spring and through summer. MLA projects national slaughter at 9.02 million head for 2025, up 8.6% and backed by grainfed throughput and processing capacity.

MLA projections and key numbers

Carcase weights sit near 309.5kg/head, keeping beef production elevated. The herd is stable at about 31 million head, with stability expected through 2026 before easing in 2027.

• National supply: steady with 9.02m slaughter in 2025.
• Carcase weight support from feedlot finishing and northern pasture.
• Exports running near 1.5m tonnes sw across the year.

North versus south: spring transition and short-term shifts

Heat is prompting northern turnoff and lifting weekly head flows. In the south, mixed moisture may force earlier marketing if October rain underdelivers.

“Match turnoff timing to feed and water on-farm, and watch processor grids week by week,” advised a southern producer.

Action point: Producers should align turnoff to local feed and water, monitor week-by-week processor signals and factor spring shifts into marketing plans.

Processing margins and inter-state competition for slaughter stock

A sharper push from export markets has encouraged southern plants to chase northern yardings, shortening schedules to a fortnight. Strong margins and firm demand mean buyers are moving interstate to secure head while numbers are available.

Direct-to-works grids show where pressure sits: NSW heavy steers near $8.50/kg dw and cows about $7.80/kg dw. Central Queensland quotes put cows at $6.90–$7.00/kg dw and four-tooth bullocks $7.50–$7.60/kg dw.

• Positive export demand has boosted processor margins and driven southern buyers into northern yards.
• Competition has tightened spreads on cows and heavy steers; quality differentials are narrowing.
• Schedules sit roughly two weeks out, so week-on-week buying is brisk at current levels.
• Expect procurement to taper into mid‑November, ahead of mid‑December northern shutdowns.

Producers: shop grids across states when freight and weights stack up, and keep NLIS and paperwork ready to move head quickly when prices suit.

“Markets are moving fast; be ready to act when the numbers and grids line up.”

Heavy steers: prices, competition and Q4 pressure points

Heavy steer values lifted through recent months as strong US and Chinese demand pushed bids at both saleyards and works.

The US choice cut‑out eased from around US$420/cwt to just above US$370/cwt, and fed beef prices that once set new records are now softening. That fall, plus the risk of higher US feedlot turnoff in Q4, could ease imported cut values and put downward pressure on heavy steer prices toward the end of the year.

Record US prices support heavy steer values, but watch Q4 US turnoff

International pull helped lift local values, yet rising US turnoff in coming months is the main downside risk. If US marketings accelerate, imported cut values may retreat and test domestic demand for finished steers.

Saleyard indicators vs direct-to-works: levels and spreads

Saleyard indicators (1 Oct): QLD 412c/kg lw; NSW 462c/kg lw; SA 496c/kg lw. Direct-to-works in NSW sits near $8.50/kg dw, while QLD bullocks quote $7.50–$7.60/kg dw.

• Prices improved on US and Chinese demand over recent months.
• Spreads between yards and grids vary by weight, quality and freight — test both channels.
• Week-to-week, expect quality-driven swings as northern heat brings more head into play.
• Timing matters: earlier marketing can reduce exposure to Q4 pressure while keeping strong levels.

Action point: Monitor processor grids daily, use forward bookings when they match target weights, and track AuctionsPlus categories to see restocker interest against direct offers.

Cows and lean beef: pricing trends and processor preferences

Stronger demand for lean trim has firmed cow levels, especially where southern plants cross-bid into northern yards.

Cow prices strengthened as tighter local slaughter combined with fierce southern buying to lift bids. Processors needed steady lean for grinds, so they chased head across state lines.

US lean demand, dairy cow cull and sub-primals in the grind

The US lean complex remains supportive on tight supply, which helped local prices. At the same time, greater use of sub-primals in the grind and a forecasted dairy cow cull in Q4 could steady imported lean and temper upside.

Quality differentials: heavy cow premiums narrowing

Heavy cow premiums have narrowed as buyers accept a wider quality range when volumes are scarce. That lifted competition for well-finished stock but reduced gaps between better and average lines.

• Indicators (1/10/25): QLD 352c/kg lw; NSW 392c/kg lw; SA 409c/kg lw.
• Direct-to-works: NSW ≈ $7.80/kg dw; QLD $6.90–$7.00/kg dw.
• Week-by-week: stability likely into year end as US wholesale values settle and local programs wind down.
• For sellers: heavy, well‑finished cows command stronger levels and freight per head improves returns.

“Clean lines and correct paperwork lift competition when multiple plants bid,” said a northern yards operator.

Practical actions: time sales ahead of peak northern shutdown, keep NLIS and weights current, and watch US tariff signals on Brazil as a key risk for early 2026 imported lean dynamics.

Feeders and feedlots: buying tempo, grain outlook and forward contracts

Buying across feedlots has picked up pace, with yards racing to secure store stock ahead of harvest.

Feedlot demand remains strong as operators fill pens and lock margins. Expectations of lower grain prices into harvest have underpinned plans for new entries.

Contract signals: 100‑day forward contracts for December sit at $8.30–$8.50/kg dw, aligning with current feed incentives and program maths.

Feeder categories and current levels

Premiums for Angus have eased from about $1.00/kg liveweight to roughly $0.50/kg as more Angus head come off fodder crops.

• Angus: ~ $5.40/kg lw
• AngusX: ~ $5.20/kg lw
• BritishX: ~ $5.00/kg lw
• Flatbacks: ~ $4.90/kg lw
• Heifers: ~ $4.50/kg lw

Northern supply will lift week by week with heat, which should steady feeder values as head numbers rise. Buying is brisk now but likely to slow into late November as end‑of‑year programs wrap.

“Watch AuctionsPlus listings and forward freight closely — they often decide net returns when categories mix,” said a southern backgrounder.

Practical takeaway: Backgrounders should use AuctionsPlus to target weights as listings rise, balance pen risk across steers and heifers, and lock contracts where forward grids beat on‑farm margins.

Restocker behaviour: demand, pasture moisture and confidence

Buying for grass-fed lines lifted in recent weeks, yet dry soils and high replacement costs are already testing appetite.

Restocker demand has firmed for shaped grass types, with many sales at $6+/kg lw and limited light weaners 150–160kg fetching above $7/kg lw. Activity remains selective and price-sensitive.

Soil probes show roughly 30% available moisture, being drawn down about 10% each week. If dry, warm weather runs another three weeks, pasture growth will flag and restocker appetite could soften.

Price sensitivity for weaners and light steers

Weaners and light steers remain the focal categories. Price resistance appears quickly when feed confidence dips, so sellers seeing good bids should consider splitting drafts by weight to maximise returns.

• Watch week-on-week listings and clearances to judge competition for head.
• Factor freight and animal health into price limits given uncertain seasonal conditions.
• In the south, improved October rain would likely rekindle stronger demand within months.

“Transparent videos and assessments on AuctionsPlus help buyers compare head efficiently across regions,” observed a southern restocker.

Heifer discount: narrowing trend and what could shift it

Heifer values have tightened to the lowest gap in 18 months. Southern restocker buying and selective feedlot demand lifted interest for well-bred females over recent months. This change is a clear market signal, but the broader seasonal outlook remains a deciding factor.

The heifer discount has narrowed materially, yet tightening spring conditions have paused further gains.

• The heifer discount has tightened over the last two months, as restockers and feedlots bid more aggressively.
• Seasonal tightening in spring has paused the narrowing, and buyers are cautious on pasture outlook week to week.
• If seasons improve and a rebuild gathers pace, heifer prices could move closer to steers as restockers compete them away from processors.
• Category spreads remain visible; read grids and weekly saleyard indicators before committing head.

For sellers, drafting even lots and supplying clear breeding background supports stronger returns. Feedlot demand for flatback and British-type heifers offers an alternative channel when the price stacks up.

“Compare AuctionsPlus outcomes week-on-week for heifers 280–330kg against steers to spot sustained shifts,” advised a market manager.

AuctionsPlus weekly pulse: volumes, AYCI, VOR and clearances

Last week’s AuctionsPlus pulse highlighted rising listings and active post-sale negotiation for key categories.

October run-rate: listings, buyer engagement and post-sale negotiations

Listings lifted to 12,525 head for the week ending 17 Oct, up 9% week-on-week. Views passed 40,000 and post-sale negotiating improved as buyers chased select lots.

The AYCI eased to 894c/kg dw while the VOR averaged $73, showing bidders still paid over reserve for well-presented lines.

Category highlights: steers, heifers and breeding stock

Breeding lines were a highlight: PTIC heifers averaged $2,971 (+$831), PTIC cows $2,258 (+$325). NSM cows & calves hit $2,692 and NSM heifers & calves $2,400.

Young steers showed solid clearances: 0–200kg $914 (87% clr), 200–280kg $1,216 (+$36), 280–330kg $1,559 (86% clr). Heavier steers 400kg+ eased to $1,949.

Regional buying flows: NSW leadership, QLD selectivity

NSW led volumes at about 3,400 head. Queensland was selective near 2,000 head as feed conditions change. Earlier weeks saw peaks: 16,613 head on 3 Oct and AYCI spikes in September.

“Use weekly information to time listings, set realistic reserves and benchmark by category and state flows,” advised a market manager.

• Action: match listing timing to buyer appetite for specific categories.
• Note: monitor clearances and regional numbers when deciding where to offer head.

State market snapshots: QLD, NSW, South Australia, Tasmania

This week’s market picture is shaped by big yardings in Queensland and firm buying in New South Wales, while South Australia and Tasmania balance supply against program premiums.

Queensland

Heat is lifting turnoff and yardings. Roma listed about 9,000–11,000 head and Dalby 6,000–8,000 last week.

Price bands were quality driven: crossbreds $4.80–$4.85/kg lw, Blackall about $4.90/kg. Angus feeders sat near $5.30–$5.40/kg lw.

Direct grids showed cows ≈ $6.90–$7.00/kg dw and bullocks $7.50–$7.60/kg dw. Indicators (1/10/25) point to steady steer flows.

New South Wales

Feeder competition stayed strong. Blacks $5.30–$5.40/kg lw, BritishX ~$5.20 and coloureds $5.00–$5.20/kg lw.

Processors bid heavily for heavies: steers near $8.50/kg dw and cows about $7.80/kg dw. The AYCI strength supported these offers.

South Australia

Wind and patchy moisture temper spring growth, but indicators remain firm. Heavy steers ~496c/kg lw and processor cows ~409c/kg lw.

Feeder and restocker lines held around 494c and 463c respectively, and PTIC/SM activity on AuctionsPlus was strong.

Tasmania

Mainland programs pulled supply across Bass Strait. Local top lines reached about $8.70/kg dw while program yearlings fetched up to ~$9.70/kg dw.

Recent sale results showed steers and heifers $4.50–$5.90/kg lw and 600–700 head moved to the mainland as premiums opened.

“Timing sales to match a weather break or a program premium often lifts returns more than chasing the top quote.”

cattle trend: where demand, supply and price meet in spring

Spring has opened with firm export bids meeting rising northern yardings, creating a busy market for sellers weighing timing and freight.

Where the market sits this week: international demand from the US and China keeps values supported while local supply builds in the north.

Processor schedules sit about two weeks out and forward grids remain firm. That combination gives sellers genuine options but short decision windows.

• Heavy steers are moving with imported cut signals; prices track global lean movements.
• Cows follow lean demand and southern cross‑bids; quality and finish set premiums.
• Feeders balance pen capacity, grain outlook and program maths when locking entries.

Online indicators show depth: AYCI ran from the high 800s to above 1,000c/kg dw in recent weeks, and VOR sat between $73 and $148 with clearances 71–86%.

Restocker sentiment is mixed. Southern buyers are cautious where pasture confidence slips, so moisture and feed forecasts matter for sales timing.

“Sell into firm programs early where freight and weights stack up,” advised a southern producer.

Practical takeaway: draft by quality and weight, compare AuctionsPlus outcomes with direct grids each week, and watch US Q4 turnoff — it could change steer and cow levels into the coming months.

Short-term outlook into year’s end

Near‑term dynamics are set by rising northern turnoff and the risk of higher US Q4 slaughter easing imported cut values.

Stabilisation risks: US Q4 production and northern turnoff

US feedlots carry very large +180‑day inventories — roughly 60% higher year‑on‑year and about 8% above the Aug 2020 record. That points to a bigger Q4 turnoff and softer imported cut values.

Locally, heat will lift northern head numbers over coming weeks and moderate price momentum for finished stock.

Buying programs winding down ahead of seasonal shutdowns

Processors and feedlots are likely to wind back buying from mid‑November ahead of mid‑December shutdowns. Schedules sit about two weeks out, which supports near‑term demand but signals flatter levels into the end of the year.

• Short‑term risks: higher US Q4 production easing imported cuts.
• Local supply: northern turnoff will lift head and ease price momentum.
• Timing: buying winds down mid‑November; shutdowns mid‑December.
• Exposure: heavy steers and cows most affected; feeders face feed and pen pressures.

“Market signals change week by week — keep grids and AuctionsPlus clearances under weekly review.”

Practical advice: consider marketing suited categories earlier in the year to avoid end‑of‑year softness, manage freight and kill bookings, and keep reserves realistic as buyer competition eases.

Medium-term outlook into 2026: placements, exports and herd settings

Lower US placements through most of 2025 point to reduced supply into H1 2026 and should support imported beef values medium term.

US herd rebuild and imported beef values

Heifers were withheld in 2025 as rebuilds began and Mexican feeder shipments fell sharply. Mexico feeder imports to the US ran about 200,000 head to July versus 850,000 in 2024.

The USDA expects H1 2026 beef production down roughly 2.5% on 2025 and near 5% below 2024. That gap helps underpin import prices and global demand for lean trimmings.

Australia’s export position and processing capacity

Australia is forecast to export about 1.5 million tonnes sw in 2025. Processing capacity is robust and carcase weights hold near 309.5kg, so slaughter and shipments are reliable into 2026.

• Implication: lower US output should firm imported values and support local prices.
• Producers: plan breeding and finishing to capture likely price upside in early 2026.
• Watch: trade policy, currency and logistics — they will shape export competitiveness and numbers of head moved.

Key risks and watchpoints for producers and traders

The near term will be ruled by policy headlines and seasonal moisture more than a single price move.

Producers should track two clear risks: trade policy that changes imported lean supply, and soil moisture that sets restocker appetite into late spring. Both can shift buyer behaviour week by week.

Policy shifts on Brazilian beef tariffs

Watch: any easing of US tariffs on Brazilian beef would add imported lean supply and pressure cow prices. A larger US dairy cow cull in Q4 could also temper imported demand for a short spell.

Moisture profile and pasture growth through late spring

Southern soil moisture sits near 30% and is drawing down fast. That raises the risk that restocker demand weakens and more head come forward.

• Northern storms can recover pasture quickly and change supply numbers week by week.
• Freight and processor space affect achieved levels into the end of season.
• Currency and shipping logistics remain constant upside/downside risks to export returns.

Practical actions: diversify categories, stagger turnoff, keep NLIS and paperwork current, and watch policy and local rain to time sales for best levels.

Actionable strategies: marketing windows, category mix and hedging

Plan marketing windows around firm program dates and shifting buyer pools to protect margins into year end.

Timing turnoff for feeders vs slaughter stock

Bring forward heavy steers and cows if exposure to weaker imported cuts in Q4 is a concern.

Schedules sit about two weeks out and buying winds down mid‑November, so time listings to capture active demand.

For feeders, align turnoff to forward grids and expected grain price dips. Use the December 100‑day $8.30–$8.50/kg dw signal as a guide.

Using forward contracts and breed/category spreads

Lock portions on forward contracts where they cover costs and desired margins, and leave some head uncommitted for upside.

With the Angus premium near ~50c/kg lw, mix categories — include heifers where grids support them and keep some feeder lines for program buyers.

• Use AuctionsPlus to target weight categories and lean on VOR trends to set realistic reserves.
• Compare saleyard vs direct‑to‑works prices weekly and factor freight and dressing to maximise net price.
• Split drafts by weight and breed to capture best bids; keep animal health and MSA pathways current for premium access.
• Review budgets with updated feed costs and price scenarios to keep decisions grounded in margins.

“Stage sales to lock margins but retain a portion for upside — it keeps options open through a changeable week‑by‑week market.”

Conclusion

Conclusion

Price momentum has held for key categories as export demand keeps the market active. Weekly signals and AuctionsPlus engagement show buyers remain willing to pay for well-presented head.

Short-term risks include a possible US Q4 lift in production and rising northern supply that may steady levels into year end. MLA’s projections — 9.02m slaughter, a ~31m herd and ~1.5m tonnes exports — confirm national capacity through 2025.

Practical steps: split drafts by weight and quality, use forward contracts where they protect margins, and check grids, yard indicators, AYCI and clearances each week. With clear market insights and timely action, producers can capture the best returns for steers and cows over the coming months.