The third quarter of 2024 has shown signs of stability in the Australian cattle market, with the Heavy Steer Indicator reflecting this positive trend. As the summer months approach, it’s essential for stakeholders to understand the dynamics at play to make informed decisions.
Historically, the third quarter has been a robust period for cattle markets, with both prices and headcount typically on the rise. This year has been no exception, with heavy steer prices increasing by 41¢/kg liveweight (lwt) and yardings surging by 80% from July to September. These figures indicate a flow of high-quality animals through saleyards, particularly in northern NSW and Queensland.
However, as supply continues to increase, there comes a point where prices may no longer be sustainable due to demand saturation. This turning point usually occurs between September and November, leading to a market correction. In previous years, such corrections have occurred when yardings reached peak levels.
In 2022 and 2023, historical data shows that heavy steer prices peaked in mid-September before experiencing a slight decline as yardings surpassed 4,000 head. This pattern suggests a cyclical nature in the market, where supply eventually outstrips demand, resulting in a temporary drop in prices.
Looking ahead to the final months of 2024, the throughput of processor-ready steers is expected to remain strong. Recent data shows that slaughter levels have been on the rise, with the highest weekly numbers since January 2020. This uptrend indicates sustained strength in both supply and demand for cattle, boding well for market participants.
While the current stability in the cattle market is a positive sign, it’s crucial for producers, processors, and other stakeholders to stay vigilant and adapt to changing market conditions. By keeping a close eye on key indicators like the Heavy Steer Indicator and understanding historical trends, industry players can make informed decisions to protect their interests and maximise profitability.
In conclusion, the recent stability in the Australian cattle market, as reflected in the Heavy Steer Indicator, is a promising development for the industry. However, it’s essential for stakeholders to remain agile and proactive in response to changing market dynamics. By leveraging data and insights from reputable sources like the MLA, industry participants can navigate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in the coming months. Subscribe to Cattle Weekly’s Newsletter to stay updated on the latest developments and trends in the Australian cattle market.
