The recent research conducted by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sheds light on the multifactorial causes of fodder crises in Ireland. The study, titled ‘ClimAg: Multifactorial Causes of Fodder Crises in Ireland and Risks due to Climate Change,’ delves into the various factors contributing to the recurrent fodder shortages in the country. Led by University College Cork (UCC), the research highlights the decreasing grass growth, especially in the south-east region, and the risks associated with drought and heat stress due to climate change.
In Ireland, the temperate climate has traditionally supported year-round grass growth, enabling a successful pasture-based farming system to thrive. However, the continuity of this system has been threatened by severe shortages in fodder stocks, leading to adverse impacts on agricultural yields, revenues, and animal welfare. Factors such as droughts, heat stress, and other environmental drivers can disrupt grass growth, potentially resulting in fodder crises.
The research not only identifies the key drivers of historic fodder crises in Ireland but also explores the potential impact of climate change on the frequency and severity of such events in the future. By developing a novel fodder crisis severity index, the study offers a means to assess the impacts of past and future fodder crises. These crises are often multifactorial and can extend over multiple years, posing significant challenges to the agricultural sector.
To address the vulnerabilities associated with fodder crises, the research proposes measures to enhance the resilience of pasture systems. One key recommendation is the increase in stored fodder provision to mitigate the impact of shortages during crisis events. Additionally, the development of early warning systems can help farmers and policymakers prepare for impending fodder shortages and take proactive steps to manage pasture productivity effectively.
The modelling framework developed as part of the research integrates climate change projection data with grass growth models to predict pasture productivity under future climatic conditions. By leveraging these insights, farmers can make informed decisions at the farm level, while policymakers can design targeted support mechanisms to address fodder shortages at a broader scale. The ability to couple this modelling framework with long-term weather forecasts offers the potential for creating an early warning system to facilitate adaptive pasture management.
Furthermore, the research emphasises the importance of timely interventions to prevent the recurrence of multi-annual fodder crisis events like those witnessed since 2010. By implementing strategies such as earlier closure in autumn to promote growth recovery in spring, stakeholders can minimise the risk of prolonged fodder shortages that strain the agricultural sector.
In conclusion, the findings of the EPA’s research underscore the urgency of addressing the underlying causes of fodder crises in Ireland. By embracing proactive measures such as increasing stored fodder reserves, developing early warning systems, and leveraging advanced modelling frameworks, the agricultural sector can build greater resilience against future fodder shortages. The collaboration between researchers, policymakers, and farmers is essential to navigate the challenges posed by climate change and safeguard the sustainability of Ireland’s agricultural practices.
